Tropical Depression Two formed Sunday over the northeastern Gulf as forecasters warned of strong thunderstorms across parts of Florida and the Southeast.

The developing tropical system and a separate weather pattern could bring heavy rain, gusty winds and localized flooding to portions of the state.

The National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Florida's Panhandle from the Ochlockonee River west to the Alabama border as Tropical Depression Two slowly strengthens over the Gulf.

Why it matters: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during the next 36 to 48 hours, with additional watches and warnings likely.

The latest:

  • Tropical Depression Two was located about 28.0°N, 85.3°W Sunday morning.
  • The system is moving north-northwest at 2 mph.
  • Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph.
  • Forecasters expect the depression to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday.

Forecast track: The depression is expected to move near or along the northern Gulf Coast over the next several days before turning west.

Expected impacts:

  • Wind: Tropical storm conditions are possible across the Florida Panhandle watch area beginning late Monday.
  • Storm surge: Water levels of 1 to 3 feet above ground are possible along Florida's Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, depending on the timing of high tide.
  • Rain: Widespread totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches, are forecast from western Florida to coastal Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana through Thursday, increasing the risk of localized flash flooding.

Bottom line: Tropical Depression Two is expected to strengthen into the season's next named storm as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, bringing the threat of tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding beginning late Monday.