Deep moisture over the Gulf of Mexico will allow showers and thunderstorms to form overnight before moving toward the coast. Rain will remain possible throughout the day later in the week as a weakening cold front stalls north of the region.
Rain chances in Tampa are around 50% Tuesday and Wednesday before increasing to 80% Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.
Flooding risk: The Weather Prediction Center has placed Tampa Bay under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday. Isolated areas could receive more than the regional forecast, particularly when storms repeatedly move over the same location.
Stormy Stretch Continues! ⛈️
— Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) July 27, 2026
Rounds of stormy weather bring the promise of frequent heavy downpours. Through the next 3 days Florida’s West Coast should see their fair share, especially Thursday as a front sags south. The stormy weather should continue into the weekend with more… pic.twitter.com/xabdnE5Vbq
Monday’s storms produced:
- Up to 5 inches of rain in parts of central Citrus County.
- About 2.5 inches near Kenneth City.
- Roughly 1.5 inches in parts of Tampa.
Heavy rainfall could cause street and poor-drainage flooding, especially if several inches fall within a short period.
Heat and lightning: Hot, humid conditions will continue, with heat index values reaching the triple digits. Widespread severe storms are not expected, but individual storms could produce lightning and gusty winds.
Why it matters: The rain could help ease severe to extreme drought conditions across Tampa Bay. However, several days of consistent rainfall will be needed to overcome the region’s deficit.
Residents should avoid flooded roads, monitor changing weather conditions and move indoors when thunder is heard.
