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# Historic El Niño could spare Tampa Bay from hurricanes but raise winter storm risk
- URL: https://tampa-bay-disaster-preparedness-news.ghost.io/historic-el-nino-could-spare-tampa-bay-from-hurricanes-but-raise-winter-storm-risk/
- Published: 2026-07-16T16:40:46.000Z
- Updated: 2026-07-16T16:40:46.000Z
- Description: El Niño could ease hurricane threats for Tampa Bay while increasing the risk of severe storms and heavy rain.
- Author: Chris Thomas
- Tags: flooding, hurricanes, News

A record-strength El Niño could reduce the number of Atlantic hurricanes threatening Tampa Bay while increasing the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and heavy rain across Florida later this year.

**The latest:**

- Forecasters expect El Niño to strengthen through the remainder of 2026.
- More than 90% of forecast models now project a historically strong event, with tropical Pacific water temperatures expected to remain at record levels for months.
- Warm waters in the eastern Pacific are a defining feature of El Niño and often reshape weather patterns across North America.

**Big picture:**

- Strong El Niño events typically increase wind shear over the Atlantic, making hurricane development more difficult.
- Forecasters continue calling for a below-average to near-average Atlantic hurricane season.
- One landfalling storm can still have major impacts regardless of seasonal forecasts.

**Why Tampa Bay should care:**

- Fewer hurricanes do not guarantee quieter weather.
- A stronger subtropical jet stream during late fall and winter often brings more rounds of heavy rain, severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes to Florida, including the Tampa Bay region.
- Communities still recovering from the 2024 hurricane season could face additional flooding concerns if repeated winter storms develop.

**By the numbers:**

- More than **90%** of forecast models project a historically strong El Niño.
- Pacific Ocean temperatures could remain at record levels for about **six months**, according to long-range forecasts.

**The bottom line:** Tampa Bay could benefit from fewer tropical systems during hurricane season if El Niño develops as forecast. Attention may shift to winter, when a stronger jet stream could increase the region's risk for severe weather, flooding and isolated tornadoes.