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# Forecasters expect fewer hurricanes in 2026, but Florida's storm risk remains
- URL: https://tampa-bay-disaster-preparedness-news.ghost.io/forecasters-expect-fewer-hurricanes-in-2026-but-floridas-storm-risk-remains/
- Published: 2026-07-26T17:35:50.000Z
- Updated: 2026-07-26T17:35:50.000Z
- Description: Forecasters continue to predict a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, but weather experts say Florida residents should not let their guard down.
- Author: Chris Thomas
- Tags: hurricanes, tropical-storms, News

Even with fewer expected storms, unusually warm Gulf waters mean any storm that develops could still become dangerous.

**The latest:**

- Tropical Storm Bertha developed near Florida earlier this week, an example of how the storm risk still remains.
- Colorado State University now forecasts **nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane**, citing a strengthening El Niño.
- NOAA's seasonal outlook calls for **eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes.**

**The big picture:**

- A strengthening **El Niño** is increasing wind shear across the Atlantic, making it more difficult for tropical systems to organize and intensify.
- At the same time, warm Atlantic and Gulf waters continue to provide fuel for storms that are able to develop.
- Forecasters emphasize that seasonal outlooks predict overall activity, not where storms will make landfall.

**What else is limiting development:**

- Large plumes of **Saharan dust** are moving across the Atlantic, bringing drier air that suppresses tropical development.
- Strong upper-level wind shear and generally near-average sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic are also helping keep conditions quiet.

**Be prepared:**

- Know your evacuation zone before a storm threatens.
- Review your homeowners and flood insurance coverage.
- Assemble a hurricane emergency kit with several days of food, water, medications and important documents.
- Monitor forecasts throughout hurricane season, which runs through **Nov. 30**.

**Bottom line:** A quieter hurricane season does not mean a safe hurricane season. Emergency managers and meteorologists stress that one well-placed storm can have catastrophic impacts, making preparation just as important in a below-average year as it is during an active one.